Every autumn the same question turns up: is it worth holding off on a new graphics card until Black Friday? In a normal year it's a fair bet. This isn't a normal year. I wouldn't wait, and the people who track GPU prices for a living are fairly blunt about it too.
What the price trackers are saying
In late September, TechRadar's Darren Allan looked at a gamer weighing an open-box RTX 5070 at around $745 against waiting for Black Friday. Citing Newegg US figures, he noted the same card had been around $650 roughly two months earlier and was now about $850, with the RTX 5060 Ti 8GB about 10% up on June. His advice was to buy now rather than wait.
That matches what Tom's Hardware found in August. The best price on an RX 9070 XT had risen from a steady $699 to $719, around 20% over its $599 launch price, and the RTX 5090 had never dropped below its $1,999 launch price. Their view of the sales calendar was that Black Friday and Prime Day have produced few real below-list discounts this generation, and that big deals tend to come from pricing errors or bundles rather than real cuts.
Those are US prices, and Irish prices include VAT and different stock, so treat them as a direction of travel rather than a shopping list. The direction is clear enough.
Why this year is different
It's the same story as RAM, SSDs and consoles: AI datacentre demand for memory. Graphics cards carry a lot of fast memory, so when that gets dearer, so does the card. Tom's Hardware expects those costs to be passed on and the next generation, rumoured for late 2027 or 2028, to cost more than this one. There's very little reason for a retailer to slash prices on cards that aren't sitting on shelves.
Waiting for November
- Banking on a discount that hasn't really arrived in recent years
- Weeks more on a card you've already decided is holding you back
- Risk of paying more if the next price rise lands first
Buying a sensible card now
- Play the games you want this winter, including the big releases
- Mid-range cards hold their resale value better than flagships
- One less thing to worry about if prices keep climbing
How I'd buy in this market
- Aim for the mid-range. TechRadar called the RTX 5070 and RX 9070 XT sensible stopgaps, and the top end is poor value right now
- Pick on features you'll use. Ray tracing, frame generation and streaming encoders matter more than a headline FPS chart
- Mind the VRAM. More memory on the same tier gives a card longer legs; see how much VRAM you actually need
- Be careful with open-box and marketplace deals. Buy from a seller with a returns policy, and be suspicious of prices far below everyone else
If you're building a whole PC
The graphics card is only part of the bill. RAM and SSDs have jumped too, which is why I spec builds around what you actually play rather than the biggest numbers on the box. Spending sensibly on the GPU and leaving room to add storage later usually beats stretching for a flagship. If you'd rather not spread the cost thin, Klarna pay-in-3 is available on bigger builds.
My verdict: buy now or sit tight
Black Friday has rarely been kind to graphics cards, and 2026's memory squeeze makes a real bargain even less likely. If your card really is holding you back, buy a fair-priced mid-range model now. If it's coping, sit tight. Just don't hold out for a sale.
